Oscar predictions by category

Who do you think is most likely to win the Oscar for Best Picture? Will it be a Cate Blanchett v. Sandra Bullock showdown for Best Actress?

Gold Derby polled 25 professional film critics and had them rank their predictions for likely Oscar nominees by category. I downloaded their data and weighted it by ordinal, giving more value to top-slot predictions.

Here are the results for the top six categories (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress) plus the screenwriting categories. Or you can download the full set of predictions here:

Oscar Predictions by Category

The Academy has new, complicated rules for Best Picture nominees that allow for at least five and up to ten possible nominations. The number of nominations can fluctuate because potential nominees in the top 10 also need to meet other vote minimum standards. Last year there were nine nominations. For our purposes, we've assumed all 10 slots will be filled.

Each film was assigned a score based on the number of critics who predicted it would get a nomination as well as how high the critic ranked the film.

Best Picture

RANK	BEST PICTURE	SCORE	# LISTS
1	12 Years a Slave	237	25
2	Gravity	225	25
3	Captain Phillips	154	24
4	American Hustle	144	22
5	Saving Mr. Banks	126	18
6	The Wolf of Wall Street	93	18
7	The Butler	76	18
8	Inside Llewyn Davis	72	20
9	Nebraska	61	19
10	Fruitvale Station	32	8
11	Her	30	8
12	Blue Jasmine	24	8
13	August: Osage County	23	8
14	Philomena	19	6
15	Dallas Buyers Club	12	4
16	All is Lost	11	4
17	The Book Thief	8	2
18	Prisoners	6	1
19	Rush	5	1
20	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	5	2
21	The Place Beyond the Pines	3	1
22	Before Midnight	2	2
23	Enough Said	2	1
24	Blue is the Warmest Color	1	1
25	The Past	1	1

Best Director

RANK	BEST DIRECTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity	224	24
1	Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave	224	24
3	David O. Russell - American Hustle	148	19
3	Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips	133	19
5	Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street	81	11
6	Alexander Payne - Nebraska	40	6
7	Joel and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis	31	5
8	Spike Jonze - Her	19	3
9	John Lee Hancock - Saving Mr. Banks	14	2
9	J.C. Chandor - All is Lost	13	2
9	Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station	13	2
12	Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine	8	1
12	Asghar Farhadi - The Past	6	1
12	Nicole Holofcener - Enough Said	6	1

Best Actress

RANK	BEST ACTRESS	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine	244	25
2	Sandra Bullock - Gravity	219	24
3	Judi Dench - Philomena	164	22
4	Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks	148	21
5	Meryl Streep - August: Osage County	124	18
6	Amy Adams - American Hustle	47	7
7	Adele Exarchopoulos - Blue is the Warmest Color	22	3
8	Brie Larson - Short Term 12	20	3
9	Berenice Bejo - The Past	6	1
9	Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Enough Said	6	1

Best Actor

RANK	BEST ACTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave	230	25
2	Robert Redford - All is Lost	226	25
3	Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club	196	24
4	Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips	167	23
5	Bruce Dern - Nebraska	93	14
6	Forest Whitaker - The Butler	45	7
7	Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station	18	3
8	Joaquin Phoenix - Her	13	2
9	Idris Elba - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom	6	1
9	Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street	6	1

Supporting Actress

RANK	SUPPORTING ACTRESS	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Lupita Nyongo - 12 Years a Slave	230	25
2	Oprah Winfrey - The Butler	215	23
3	June Squibb - Nebraska	126	17
4	Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle	107	14
5	Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station	99	13
6	Julia Roberts - August: Osage County	75	11
7	Margo Martindale - August: Osage County	50	7
8	Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine	47	7
9	Sarah Paulson - 12 Years a Slave	15	2
10	Scarlett Johansson - Her	12	2
11	Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyers Club	6	1
11	Lea Seydoux - Blue is the Warmest Color	6	1
11	Melissa Leo - Prisoners	6	1
11	Melonie Diaz - Fruitvale Station	6	1

Supporting Actor

RANK	SUPPORTING ACTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club	236	25
2	Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave	217	24
3	Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks	146	18
4	Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips	92	13
5	Daniel Bruhl - Rush	72	11
6	Bradley Cooper - American Hustle	58	8
7	James Gandolfini - Enough Said	45	6
8	John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis	34	5
9	David Oyelowo - The Butler	20	3
10	Matthew McConaughey - Mud	18	3
11	Chris Cooper - August: Osage County	14	2
11	Harrison Ford - 42	14	2
11	Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street	14	2
14	George Clooney - Gravity	7	1
14	Jeremy Renner - American Hustle	7	1
16	Paul Dano - Prisoners	6	1

Original Screenplay

RANK	ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Blue Jasmine	179	21
2	American Hustle	171	18
3	Inside Llewyn Davis	155	19
4	Nebraska	127	16
5	Her	88	12
6	Saving Mr. Banks	79	11
7	Gravity	77	10
8	Fruitvale Station	70	10
9	Enough Said	40	6
10	Dallas Buyers Club	8	1
11	Rush	6	1

Adapted Screenplay

RANK	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	SCORE	# LISTS
1	12 Years a Slave	246	25
2	Before Midnight	176	22
3	The Wolf of Wall Street	149	18
4	Captain Phillips	128	17
5	August: Osage County	113	15
6	Philomena	74	11
7	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	46	7
8	The Book Thief	22	3
9	Lone Survivor	13	2
10	Blue is the Warmest Color	6	1
10	Labor Day	6	1

Download the full set of Oscar Predictions by Category.

Prioritizing your must-see Oscar hopefuls

Unless you're a film critic or as Oscar voter on the mailing list for screeners, most of us don't have a chance to see every Oscar nominee. But some of us do try to see at least the top-nominated films. That can be a tall order when there's little over a month between announcing the nominees and the Oscar ceremony telecast.

Some of my fiends have asked me who I think will get nominated so that they could try to get a head start. I started to give recommendations based on anecdotal buzz. Then I tried to focus just on the more likely Best Picture nominees. 

Finally I devised a more scientific method. I went to GoldDerby.com, which handicaps predictions for entertainment-related betting. They polled 25 experts on their predictions of likely Oscar nominees in most categories (Best Original Song was omitted and other categories may have as well). In addition, each critic ranked their predictions, putting their most likely nominee first and least likely last. So I downloaded their data and assigned each film a score based on how many critics thought the film might get a nomination in a given category and how likely they felt it might get that nomination. I omitted the shorts categories but included the feature-length documentary category.

I should mention that I suspect Gold Derby's data could change. They might add more critics, they might survey more categories, or they might allow critics to change their minds. This is just a snapshot of how things measured up a week or so ago.

Based on their thoughts, here's the prioritized list of what to see. (In a separate post, I'll break the predictions down by category.) I've broken out data for the top six categories (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress) for those who want to prioritize by that, and also provided data spanning all categories where Gold Derby polled experts.

Most have a range. The low end of the range is the number where a consensus of critics think a nomination is likely for a particular category. The upper end of the range includes outliers -- additional categories where some critics, but not a majority, think the film might also score a nomination.

#	Film	Top 6 Categories	All Categories
1	12 Years a Slave	(5 to 6)	(14 to 15)
2	Gravity	(3 to 4)	(10 to 12)
3	Captain Phillips	(4 to 4)	(9 to 10)
4	American Hustle	(3 to 6)	(6 to 12)
5	Rush	(1 to 2)	(6 to 10)
6	Saving Mr. Banks	(3 to 4)	(5 to 9)
7	Nebraska	(3 to 4)	(4 to 8)
8	All is Lost	(1 to 3)	(3 to 7)
9	The Butler	(2 to 4)	(3 to 6)
10	Inside Llewyn Davis	(1 to 3)	(3 to 8)
11	The Wolf of Wall Street	(2 to 4)	(3 to 7)
12	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	0	(3 to 4)
13	Blue Jasmine	(1 to 4)	(2 to 5)
14	Dallas Buyers Club	(2 to 4)	(2 to 6)
15	The Great Gatsby	0	(2 to 6)
16	August: Osage County	(1 to 5)	(2 to 6)
17	Fruitvale Station	(2 to 5)	(2 to 6)
18	Oz the Great and Powerful	0	(2 to 5)
19	Philomena	(1 to 2)	(1 to 4)
20	Her	(0 to 4)	(1 to 8)
21	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	(0 to 1)	(1 to 6)
22	Frozen	0	(1 to 3)
23	Before Midnight	(0 to 1)	(1 to 2)
24	The Wind Rises	0	(1 to 1)
25	Pacific Rim	0	(1 to 3)
26	Monsters University	0	(1 to 1)
27	The Book Thief	(0 to 1)	(1 to 4)
28	Despicable Me 2	0	(1 to 1)
29	The Croods	0	(1 to 1)
30	Elysium	0	(1 to 1)
31	Enough Said	(0 to 4)	(0 to 5)
32	Ernest and Celestine	0	(0 to 1)
33	Iron Man 3	0	(0 to 2)
34	The Invisible Woman	0	(0 to 2)
35	Prisoners	(0 to 3)	(0 to 5)
36	Star Trek Into Darkness	0	(0 to 3)
37	Blue is the Warmest Color	(0 to 3)	(0 to 4)
38	Short Term 12	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)
39	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	0	(0 to 2)
40	Mud	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)
41	42	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)
42	The Past	(0 to 3)	(0 to 3)
43	Lone Survivor	0	(0 to 1)
44	Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom	(0 to 1)	(0 to 2)
45	The Lone Ranger	0	(0 to 1)
46	Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2	0	(0 to 1)
47	Labor Day	0	(0 to 1)
48	Man of Steel	0	(0 to 1)
49	Stoker	0	(0 to 1)
50	The Grandmaster	0	(0 to 1)
51	To the Wonder	0	(0 to 1)
52	World War Z	0	(0 to 1)
53	The Place Beyond the Pines	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)

I should also mention that there are some films these critics ignored that will almost certainly make my Cosmo list, with Kill Your Darlings being the most notable.

You can download PDFs with more details here:

• Top 6 Oscar Predictions
• Full List of Oscar Predictions

I'll post the per-category predictions in a separate post.

How ensemble nominations affect the best of the best

The Cosmique Movie Awards have two ensemble categories: Best Ensemble, which rewards an entire cast for their collective acting (the Screen Actors Guild's equivalent of a Best Picture), and Sexiest Ensemble, rewarding the cast as a whole for their overall attractiveness (shallow, but fun).

Usually when we speak of most-nominated actors and actresses, we generally focus on their individual achievements. Rosalind Russell has had 13 individual nominations, winning three of them, making her the person with the most individual nominations and tying with Meryl Streep and Charlize Theron for the most individual awards.

But how do those figures change when ensemble nominations are factored in?

Rosalind also has shared an ensemble win for The Women (1939), which won Movie With the Best Ensemble Cast at the first Cosmos, bringing her to four wins out of 14 nominations.

But it's Cate Blanchett whose ensemble awards put her at the top. She's won two of her 12 individual nominations, but she's also shared in winning two out of five ensemble nominations, bringing her to four Cosmos out of 17 total individual and ensemble nominations.

Nipping at her heels is her Lord of the Rings costar Ian McKellen, whose eight ensemble nominations (and two wins) -- more than any other actor thanks to The Lord of the Rings, The Hobbit, and the X-Men franchises -- are paired with another eight individual nominations (one win), giving him 16 nominations with three wins.

Rosalind's collective 14 nominations are followed by Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman, who each have 13 collective nominations. Meryl won three of her 10 individual nominations but none of her three ensemble nominations. Nicole has eight individual and five ensemble nominations, but has never won.

They're followed by Anne Hathaway with a four awards out of eight nominations, winning two of her seven individual nominations and two of her five ensemble nominations.

Orlando Bloom has a total of 11 nominations, four individual and seven ensemble. All four of his awards were ensemble wins (two for Lord of the Rings films, one for a Pirates of the Caribbean film, and one for Troy). And our list is rounded out with Natalie Portman, with two awards for her collective 10 nominations. Both of her awards were for individual performances out of seven individual nominations. She has shares in three ensemble nominations.

When ensemble awards are factored in with individual awards, five actors are tied for the most awards, with four awards each: Cate Blanchett, Orlando Bloom, Helena Bonham Carter, Anne Hathaway, and Rosalind Russell. All required ensemble wins to round out their wins. Rosalind Russell has the most individual awards, while Orlando Bloom is unusual in that he's tied for first for overall wins, but all of his awards are for ensembles.

That's where the vote totals stand after nine years of Cosmo Awards. We'll see what happens next year. Will Rosalind Russell receive another Hall of Fame nomination? Will Cate Blanchett be recognized for Blue Jasmine? And three of these actors appear in The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, a favorite franchise for Cosmo voters that could well get more individual or ensemble nominations. We shall see.

Who has appeared in the most Cosmo-nominated movies?

Which Cosmo-nominated actor or actress has appeared in the most Cosmo-nominated movies? The answer might surprise you.

We don't mean the person who has received the most individual nominations (that would be Rosalind Russell, with 13 individual nominations). We're looking for the person who has appeared in the most films that have received at least one Cosmo nomination, even if the nomination wasn't for that actor. (Could be an actress who appeared in a film whose sole nomination was for Actor's Character You Most Would Like to be Intimate With.)

The answer is ... Ian Holm!

Ian Holm's sole nomination (and win) was for Best Villain for his appearance in From Hell (2001). But he has appeared in a total of 13 movies that have received Cosmo nods, including, in chronological order of film's release:

• Alien (1979) 
• Brazil (1985) 
• The Fifth Element (1997) 
• eXistenZ (1999) 
• From Hell (2001) 
• The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) 
• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002) 
• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) 
• The Aviator (2004) 
• The Day After Tomorrow (2004) 
• Garden State (2004) 
• The Cabin in the Woods (2012) 
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012)

It's unclear whether he will be in the upcoming The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (IMDB lists him but Rotten Tomatoes does not), but it seems like that he will be in next year's The Hobbit: There and Back Again.

Ian's 13 nominations are followed by Helena Bonham Carter and Jude Law, who have each appeared in 12 Cosmo-nominated films, and then by Alec Baldwin, Anne Hathaway, Cate Blanchett, Jim Broadbent, Johnny Depp, and Judi Dench, who have all appeared in 11 Cosmo-nominated films.

Trailer: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)

The Amazing Spider-Man received eight Cosmo nominations in 2012, including Best Costume Design Or Make-Up, Best Visual Effects, Best Performance by a Young Actor or Actress (Max Charles), Favorite Male Heroic Character (Andrew Garfield), Actor’s Character You Would Most Like to be Intimate With (Andrew Garfield), Actress’ Character You Would Most Like to be Intimate With (Emma Stone), Best Action/Adventure Film, and Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Film.

Now the trailer for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has been released, starring Cosmo winner Andrew Garfield, Cosmo winner Emma Stone, and Cosmo nominee Dane DeHaan. Coming to theaters in 2014. Check it out!

Best mashup of 2013 films

Every year, people far more talented than I am create mashup videos of some of the best movies of the year.

This year, someone on Youtube called The Sleepy Skunk has posted one that I think may be the best movie mashup of all time, using 324 clips from 197 different films. The clip-by-clips credits are listed on his Tumblr.

Here's the video:



The complete list of films featured include:

The ABC’s of Death; About Time; The Act of Killing; Adore; After Earth; All Is Lost; American Hustle; Anchorman 2; Another; August: Osage County; Bad Grandpa; Baggage Claim; Battle of the Year; Beautiful Creatures; Before Midnight; Berberian Sound Studio; Best Man Down; The Best Man Holiday; The Big Wedding; Black Nativity; The Bling Ring; Blue is the Warmest Color; Blue Jasmine; The Book Thief; Broken City; Bullet to the Head; The Butler; Byzantium; The Call; The Canyons; Captain Phillips; Carrie; Charlie Countryman; Chinese Zodiac (CZ12); Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2; The Colony; The Conjuring; The Counsellor; The Croods; Dallas Buyers Club; Dark Skies; Dead Man Down; Delivery Man; Despicable Me 2; Dhoom 3; Don Jon; Drinking Buddies; The East; Elysium; Emperor; Ender’s Game; Enough Said; Epic; Escape From Planet Earth; Escape From Tomorrow; Escape Plan; Evil Dead; The Family; Fast and Furious 6; The Fifth Estate; Filth; 47 Ronin; 42; Frances Ha; Free Birds; Frozen; Fruitvale Station; G.I. Joe: Retaliation; Gangster Squad; The Gatekeepers ; Getaway; Gloria; God Loves Uganda; A Good Day to Die Hard; Grace of Monaco; The Grandmaster; Gravity; The Great Beauty; The Great Gatsby; Grown Ups 2; The Hangover Part III; Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters; A Haunted House; The Heat; Her; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Homefront; The Host; How I Live Now; Hummingbird (Redemption); The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; I Give It a Year; I’m So Excited; Identity Thief; The Incredible Burt Wonderstone; The Informant; Inside Llewyn Davis; Insidious: Chapter 2; The Internship; Ip Man: Final Fight; Iron Man 3; Jack the Giant Slayer; Jobs; John Dies at the End; Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain; Kick-ass 2; Kill Your Darlings; The Kings of Summer; The Last Exorcism: Part II; The Last Stand; Last Vegas; The Lone Ranger; Lone Survivor; Lords of Salem; Machete Kills; Mama; Man of Steel; Man of Tai Chi; Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom; Metallica: Through The Never; Metro; Monsters University; Mood Indigo; The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones; Mr, Nobody; Mr. Nobody; Much Ado About Nothing; Mud; Nebraska; Now You See Me; Oblivion; Oldboy; Olympus Has Fallen; Only God Forgives; Out of the Furnace; Oz: The Great and Powerful; Pacific Rim; Pain and Gain; Paranoia; Parker; Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters; Philomena; The Place Beyond The Pines; Planes; Populaire; Prisoners; The Purge; R.I.P.D.; Red 2; Riddick; Romeo and Juliet; Room 237; Runner Runner; Rush; Saving Mr. Banks; The Secret Life of Walter Mitty; Shadow Dancer; Shanghai Calling; Short Term 12; Side Effects; The Smurfs 2; Snitch; The Spectacular Now; Spring Breakers; Stand Up Guys; Star Trek Into Darkness; Stoker; Stories We Tell; Texas Chainsaw 3D; This is the End; Thor: The Dark World; The To Do List; To The Wonder; A Touch of Sin; Trance; Turbo; 12 Years a Slave; 21 and Over; 22 Bullets; 2 Guns; The Unknown Known; Upside Down; Upstream Color; V/H/S 2; Violet and Daisy; Walking With Dinosaurs; The Wall; Warm Bodies; The Way Way Back; We’re The Millers; White House Down; The Wind Rises; The Wolf of Wall Street; The Wolverine; World War Z; The World’s End; and You’re Next.

Again, you can find the clips listed in order on his Tumblr.

Paul Walker (1973-2013)

We're so sad to hear that actor Paul Walker died in a car accident yesterday. He was 40 years old.

Walker, who has worked steadily in Hollywood since he was a young teenager, is probably best known to audiences for the Fast & Furious franchise, the sixth of which was released this year and a seventh is in production. Other 2013 films include Pawn Shop, Vehicle 19, and the upcoming Hours, which is scheduled for limited release in December.

At the second Cosmo Awards, his film Joy Ride was nominated for Best Mystery, Suspense, Horror, or Thriller Film of 2001. If categories like Sexiest Ensemble, Intimate Actor, or (Gratuitous?) Nudity existed then, it surely would have received more nominations.

Our thoughts are with his family and loved ones.