Prioritizing your Oscar queue

When the Oscar nominations are announced, many people rush out and try to see as many of the Oscar-nominated films that they can before the awards ceremony. (The next Academy Awards will be on February 22, 2015.)

To help you get a head start, we've looked at Gold Derby's Oscar predictions and created a weighted list based on their predictions for the top six categories: Best Picture, Best Director, and the four lead and supporting acting awards. (We figure those are the awards that casual viewers are most interested in.)

Their lists rank their predictions in each category, extending far beyond the number of available nominees for each award. This chart I've made shows:

• Predicted Noms in Top 6 Categories: For each film, the number of times in the top six categories their odds have placed them high enough to be nominated in that category.
• Total Weight: My own mathematical weight for each film that appears on any of Gold Derby's lists, even if they're farther down. The higher they appear on a list, the greater the weight. Some films may have a high weight but still not be predicted for an award if they were on many prediction lists but just below the cutoff for each category.

Rank	Film	Predicted Noms in Top 6 Cats	Total Weight
1	Birdman	5	568
2	Foxcatcher	4	628
3	Boyhood	4	483
4	The Imitation Game	3	385
5	The Theory of Everything	3	374
6	Interstellar	2	846
7	Gone Girl	2	557
8	Unbroken	2	460
9	Wild	2	427
10	Selma	1	705
11	Into the Woods	1	676
12	Mr. Turner	1	400
13	The Judge	1	372
14	American Sniper	1	355
15	Whiplash	1	353
16	Big Eyes	1	335
17	Still Alice	1	256
18	Inherent Vice		732
19	The Grand Budapest Hotel		514
20	Kill the Messenger		512
21	St. Vincent		474
22	A Most Violent Year		419
23	Fury		418
24	The Homesman		380
25	Get On Up		375
26	The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby		370
27	Men Women and Children		361
28	Dear White People		358
29	Exodus: Gods and Kings		353
30	Love Is Strange		333
31	The Gambler		327
32	The Fault in Our Stars		316
33	Begin Again		295
34	Rosewater		294
35	Miss Julie		283
36	The Good Lie		280
37	Nightcrawler		271
38	Pride		244
39	Calvary		225
40	Annie		198
41	Chef		187
42	Maps to the Stars		174
43	Top Five		172
44	The Hobbit: The Battle of the 5 Armies		160
45	Two Days One Night		90
46	Tracks		89
47	Maleficent		85
48	Locke		84
49	A Most Wanted Man		82
50	The Hundred-Foot Journey		81
51	Trash		76
52	The Lego Movie		74
53	The Giver		69
54	Noah		63
55	This Is Where I Leave You		59

Neil Patrick Harris to host the Oscars

Variety is reporting that Neil Patrick Harris has been selected to host the 87th annual Oscars, which will be televised on February 22, 2015.

All he has to do now is host the Grammys to have the EGOT of awards hosting.

There's no EGOT for hosts, just winners, but it's fun to imagine. An EGOT is someone who has won an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. If Harris is nominated for and wins a Grammy for the cast recording of Hedwig, he'll just need to win an Oscar to have an actual EGOT.

He won't be the first openly-LGBT person to host the Oscars; Cosmo-winner Ellen Degeneres hosted in 2007 and again last year. Like Harris, she has also hosted the Emmys, but has not hosted the Tonys.

Oscar predictions by category

Who do you think is most likely to win the Oscar for Best Picture? Will it be a Cate Blanchett v. Sandra Bullock showdown for Best Actress?

Gold Derby polled 25 professional film critics and had them rank their predictions for likely Oscar nominees by category. I downloaded their data and weighted it by ordinal, giving more value to top-slot predictions.

Here are the results for the top six categories (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress) plus the screenwriting categories. Or you can download the full set of predictions here:

Oscar Predictions by Category

The Academy has new, complicated rules for Best Picture nominees that allow for at least five and up to ten possible nominations. The number of nominations can fluctuate because potential nominees in the top 10 also need to meet other vote minimum standards. Last year there were nine nominations. For our purposes, we've assumed all 10 slots will be filled.

Each film was assigned a score based on the number of critics who predicted it would get a nomination as well as how high the critic ranked the film.

Best Picture

RANK	BEST PICTURE	SCORE	# LISTS
1	12 Years a Slave	237	25
2	Gravity	225	25
3	Captain Phillips	154	24
4	American Hustle	144	22
5	Saving Mr. Banks	126	18
6	The Wolf of Wall Street	93	18
7	The Butler	76	18
8	Inside Llewyn Davis	72	20
9	Nebraska	61	19
10	Fruitvale Station	32	8
11	Her	30	8
12	Blue Jasmine	24	8
13	August: Osage County	23	8
14	Philomena	19	6
15	Dallas Buyers Club	12	4
16	All is Lost	11	4
17	The Book Thief	8	2
18	Prisoners	6	1
19	Rush	5	1
20	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	5	2
21	The Place Beyond the Pines	3	1
22	Before Midnight	2	2
23	Enough Said	2	1
24	Blue is the Warmest Color	1	1
25	The Past	1	1

Best Director

RANK	BEST DIRECTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity	224	24
1	Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave	224	24
3	David O. Russell - American Hustle	148	19
3	Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips	133	19
5	Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street	81	11
6	Alexander Payne - Nebraska	40	6
7	Joel and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis	31	5
8	Spike Jonze - Her	19	3
9	John Lee Hancock - Saving Mr. Banks	14	2
9	J.C. Chandor - All is Lost	13	2
9	Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station	13	2
12	Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine	8	1
12	Asghar Farhadi - The Past	6	1
12	Nicole Holofcener - Enough Said	6	1

Best Actress

RANK	BEST ACTRESS	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine	244	25
2	Sandra Bullock - Gravity	219	24
3	Judi Dench - Philomena	164	22
4	Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks	148	21
5	Meryl Streep - August: Osage County	124	18
6	Amy Adams - American Hustle	47	7
7	Adele Exarchopoulos - Blue is the Warmest Color	22	3
8	Brie Larson - Short Term 12	20	3
9	Berenice Bejo - The Past	6	1
9	Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Enough Said	6	1

Best Actor

RANK	BEST ACTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave	230	25
2	Robert Redford - All is Lost	226	25
3	Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club	196	24
4	Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips	167	23
5	Bruce Dern - Nebraska	93	14
6	Forest Whitaker - The Butler	45	7
7	Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station	18	3
8	Joaquin Phoenix - Her	13	2
9	Idris Elba - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom	6	1
9	Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street	6	1

Supporting Actress

RANK	SUPPORTING ACTRESS	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Lupita Nyongo - 12 Years a Slave	230	25
2	Oprah Winfrey - The Butler	215	23
3	June Squibb - Nebraska	126	17
4	Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle	107	14
5	Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station	99	13
6	Julia Roberts - August: Osage County	75	11
7	Margo Martindale - August: Osage County	50	7
8	Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine	47	7
9	Sarah Paulson - 12 Years a Slave	15	2
10	Scarlett Johansson - Her	12	2
11	Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyers Club	6	1
11	Lea Seydoux - Blue is the Warmest Color	6	1
11	Melissa Leo - Prisoners	6	1
11	Melonie Diaz - Fruitvale Station	6	1

Supporting Actor

RANK	SUPPORTING ACTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club	236	25
2	Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave	217	24
3	Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks	146	18
4	Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips	92	13
5	Daniel Bruhl - Rush	72	11
6	Bradley Cooper - American Hustle	58	8
7	James Gandolfini - Enough Said	45	6
8	John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis	34	5
9	David Oyelowo - The Butler	20	3
10	Matthew McConaughey - Mud	18	3
11	Chris Cooper - August: Osage County	14	2
11	Harrison Ford - 42	14	2
11	Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street	14	2
14	George Clooney - Gravity	7	1
14	Jeremy Renner - American Hustle	7	1
16	Paul Dano - Prisoners	6	1

Original Screenplay

RANK	ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Blue Jasmine	179	21
2	American Hustle	171	18
3	Inside Llewyn Davis	155	19
4	Nebraska	127	16
5	Her	88	12
6	Saving Mr. Banks	79	11
7	Gravity	77	10
8	Fruitvale Station	70	10
9	Enough Said	40	6
10	Dallas Buyers Club	8	1
11	Rush	6	1

Adapted Screenplay

RANK	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	SCORE	# LISTS
1	12 Years a Slave	246	25
2	Before Midnight	176	22
3	The Wolf of Wall Street	149	18
4	Captain Phillips	128	17
5	August: Osage County	113	15
6	Philomena	74	11
7	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	46	7
8	The Book Thief	22	3
9	Lone Survivor	13	2
10	Blue is the Warmest Color	6	1
10	Labor Day	6	1

Download the full set of Oscar Predictions by Category.

Prioritizing your must-see Oscar hopefuls

Unless you're a film critic or as Oscar voter on the mailing list for screeners, most of us don't have a chance to see every Oscar nominee. But some of us do try to see at least the top-nominated films. That can be a tall order when there's little over a month between announcing the nominees and the Oscar ceremony telecast.

Some of my fiends have asked me who I think will get nominated so that they could try to get a head start. I started to give recommendations based on anecdotal buzz. Then I tried to focus just on the more likely Best Picture nominees. 

Finally I devised a more scientific method. I went to GoldDerby.com, which handicaps predictions for entertainment-related betting. They polled 25 experts on their predictions of likely Oscar nominees in most categories (Best Original Song was omitted and other categories may have as well). In addition, each critic ranked their predictions, putting their most likely nominee first and least likely last. So I downloaded their data and assigned each film a score based on how many critics thought the film might get a nomination in a given category and how likely they felt it might get that nomination. I omitted the shorts categories but included the feature-length documentary category.

I should mention that I suspect Gold Derby's data could change. They might add more critics, they might survey more categories, or they might allow critics to change their minds. This is just a snapshot of how things measured up a week or so ago.

Based on their thoughts, here's the prioritized list of what to see. (In a separate post, I'll break the predictions down by category.) I've broken out data for the top six categories (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress) for those who want to prioritize by that, and also provided data spanning all categories where Gold Derby polled experts.

Most have a range. The low end of the range is the number where a consensus of critics think a nomination is likely for a particular category. The upper end of the range includes outliers -- additional categories where some critics, but not a majority, think the film might also score a nomination.

#	Film	Top 6 Categories	All Categories
1	12 Years a Slave	(5 to 6)	(14 to 15)
2	Gravity	(3 to 4)	(10 to 12)
3	Captain Phillips	(4 to 4)	(9 to 10)
4	American Hustle	(3 to 6)	(6 to 12)
5	Rush	(1 to 2)	(6 to 10)
6	Saving Mr. Banks	(3 to 4)	(5 to 9)
7	Nebraska	(3 to 4)	(4 to 8)
8	All is Lost	(1 to 3)	(3 to 7)
9	The Butler	(2 to 4)	(3 to 6)
10	Inside Llewyn Davis	(1 to 3)	(3 to 8)
11	The Wolf of Wall Street	(2 to 4)	(3 to 7)
12	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	0	(3 to 4)
13	Blue Jasmine	(1 to 4)	(2 to 5)
14	Dallas Buyers Club	(2 to 4)	(2 to 6)
15	The Great Gatsby	0	(2 to 6)
16	August: Osage County	(1 to 5)	(2 to 6)
17	Fruitvale Station	(2 to 5)	(2 to 6)
18	Oz the Great and Powerful	0	(2 to 5)
19	Philomena	(1 to 2)	(1 to 4)
20	Her	(0 to 4)	(1 to 8)
21	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	(0 to 1)	(1 to 6)
22	Frozen	0	(1 to 3)
23	Before Midnight	(0 to 1)	(1 to 2)
24	The Wind Rises	0	(1 to 1)
25	Pacific Rim	0	(1 to 3)
26	Monsters University	0	(1 to 1)
27	The Book Thief	(0 to 1)	(1 to 4)
28	Despicable Me 2	0	(1 to 1)
29	The Croods	0	(1 to 1)
30	Elysium	0	(1 to 1)
31	Enough Said	(0 to 4)	(0 to 5)
32	Ernest and Celestine	0	(0 to 1)
33	Iron Man 3	0	(0 to 2)
34	The Invisible Woman	0	(0 to 2)
35	Prisoners	(0 to 3)	(0 to 5)
36	Star Trek Into Darkness	0	(0 to 3)
37	Blue is the Warmest Color	(0 to 3)	(0 to 4)
38	Short Term 12	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)
39	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	0	(0 to 2)
40	Mud	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)
41	42	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)
42	The Past	(0 to 3)	(0 to 3)
43	Lone Survivor	0	(0 to 1)
44	Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom	(0 to 1)	(0 to 2)
45	The Lone Ranger	0	(0 to 1)
46	Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2	0	(0 to 1)
47	Labor Day	0	(0 to 1)
48	Man of Steel	0	(0 to 1)
49	Stoker	0	(0 to 1)
50	The Grandmaster	0	(0 to 1)
51	To the Wonder	0	(0 to 1)
52	World War Z	0	(0 to 1)
53	The Place Beyond the Pines	(0 to 1)	(0 to 1)

I should also mention that there are some films these critics ignored that will almost certainly make my Cosmo list, with Kill Your Darlings being the most notable.

You can download PDFs with more details here:

• Top 6 Oscar Predictions
• Full List of Oscar Predictions

I'll post the per-category predictions in a separate post.