Oscar predictions by category

Who do you think is most likely to win the Oscar for Best Picture? Will it be a Cate Blanchett v. Sandra Bullock showdown for Best Actress?

Gold Derby polled 25 professional film critics and had them rank their predictions for likely Oscar nominees by category. I downloaded their data and weighted it by ordinal, giving more value to top-slot predictions.

Here are the results for the top six categories (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress) plus the screenwriting categories. Or you can download the full set of predictions here:

Oscar Predictions by Category

The Academy has new, complicated rules for Best Picture nominees that allow for at least five and up to ten possible nominations. The number of nominations can fluctuate because potential nominees in the top 10 also need to meet other vote minimum standards. Last year there were nine nominations. For our purposes, we've assumed all 10 slots will be filled.

Each film was assigned a score based on the number of critics who predicted it would get a nomination as well as how high the critic ranked the film.

Best Picture

RANK	BEST PICTURE	SCORE	# LISTS
1	12 Years a Slave	237	25
2	Gravity	225	25
3	Captain Phillips	154	24
4	American Hustle	144	22
5	Saving Mr. Banks	126	18
6	The Wolf of Wall Street	93	18
7	The Butler	76	18
8	Inside Llewyn Davis	72	20
9	Nebraska	61	19
10	Fruitvale Station	32	8
11	Her	30	8
12	Blue Jasmine	24	8
13	August: Osage County	23	8
14	Philomena	19	6
15	Dallas Buyers Club	12	4
16	All is Lost	11	4
17	The Book Thief	8	2
18	Prisoners	6	1
19	Rush	5	1
20	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	5	2
21	The Place Beyond the Pines	3	1
22	Before Midnight	2	2
23	Enough Said	2	1
24	Blue is the Warmest Color	1	1
25	The Past	1	1

Best Director

RANK	BEST DIRECTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity	224	24
1	Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave	224	24
3	David O. Russell - American Hustle	148	19
3	Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips	133	19
5	Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street	81	11
6	Alexander Payne - Nebraska	40	6
7	Joel and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis	31	5
8	Spike Jonze - Her	19	3
9	John Lee Hancock - Saving Mr. Banks	14	2
9	J.C. Chandor - All is Lost	13	2
9	Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station	13	2
12	Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine	8	1
12	Asghar Farhadi - The Past	6	1
12	Nicole Holofcener - Enough Said	6	1

Best Actress

RANK	BEST ACTRESS	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine	244	25
2	Sandra Bullock - Gravity	219	24
3	Judi Dench - Philomena	164	22
4	Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks	148	21
5	Meryl Streep - August: Osage County	124	18
6	Amy Adams - American Hustle	47	7
7	Adele Exarchopoulos - Blue is the Warmest Color	22	3
8	Brie Larson - Short Term 12	20	3
9	Berenice Bejo - The Past	6	1
9	Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Enough Said	6	1

Best Actor

RANK	BEST ACTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave	230	25
2	Robert Redford - All is Lost	226	25
3	Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club	196	24
4	Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips	167	23
5	Bruce Dern - Nebraska	93	14
6	Forest Whitaker - The Butler	45	7
7	Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station	18	3
8	Joaquin Phoenix - Her	13	2
9	Idris Elba - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom	6	1
9	Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street	6	1

Supporting Actress

RANK	SUPPORTING ACTRESS	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Lupita Nyongo - 12 Years a Slave	230	25
2	Oprah Winfrey - The Butler	215	23
3	June Squibb - Nebraska	126	17
4	Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle	107	14
5	Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station	99	13
6	Julia Roberts - August: Osage County	75	11
7	Margo Martindale - August: Osage County	50	7
8	Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine	47	7
9	Sarah Paulson - 12 Years a Slave	15	2
10	Scarlett Johansson - Her	12	2
11	Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyers Club	6	1
11	Lea Seydoux - Blue is the Warmest Color	6	1
11	Melissa Leo - Prisoners	6	1
11	Melonie Diaz - Fruitvale Station	6	1

Supporting Actor

RANK	SUPPORTING ACTOR	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club	236	25
2	Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave	217	24
3	Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks	146	18
4	Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips	92	13
5	Daniel Bruhl - Rush	72	11
6	Bradley Cooper - American Hustle	58	8
7	James Gandolfini - Enough Said	45	6
8	John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis	34	5
9	David Oyelowo - The Butler	20	3
10	Matthew McConaughey - Mud	18	3
11	Chris Cooper - August: Osage County	14	2
11	Harrison Ford - 42	14	2
11	Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street	14	2
14	George Clooney - Gravity	7	1
14	Jeremy Renner - American Hustle	7	1
16	Paul Dano - Prisoners	6	1

Original Screenplay

RANK	ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	SCORE	# LISTS
1	Blue Jasmine	179	21
2	American Hustle	171	18
3	Inside Llewyn Davis	155	19
4	Nebraska	127	16
5	Her	88	12
6	Saving Mr. Banks	79	11
7	Gravity	77	10
8	Fruitvale Station	70	10
9	Enough Said	40	6
10	Dallas Buyers Club	8	1
11	Rush	6	1

Adapted Screenplay

RANK	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	SCORE	# LISTS
1	12 Years a Slave	246	25
2	Before Midnight	176	22
3	The Wolf of Wall Street	149	18
4	Captain Phillips	128	17
5	August: Osage County	113	15
6	Philomena	74	11
7	The Secret Life of Walter Mitty	46	7
8	The Book Thief	22	3
9	Lone Survivor	13	2
10	Blue is the Warmest Color	6	1
10	Labor Day	6	1

Download the full set of Oscar Predictions by Category.